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A study on cognitive biases in gambling: Hot hand and gamblers' fallacy

Author: J. Xu Published: June 2017
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Summary

This thesis by Juemin Xu examines cognitive biases in gambling, focusing on the hot hand effect and gambler's fallacy.

Topics covered

  • analysis of real online gambling data to examine hot hand and gambler's fallacy effects
  • roulette experiment to compare gambling behaviour in different games
  • investigation of expertise in sports betting

Key findings

The research found evidence for a hot hand effect in sports betting, but this was created by gamblers following the gambler's fallacy. Some gamblers showed consistent expertise, outperforming peers by limiting losses rather than through superior strategy.

Gambling behaviour differed between sports betting and roulette, suggesting motivations vary between game types.

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